Big Moves Are Over. Gauthier Stays Inside His Sandbox.

Plekanec is signed and Halak is gone. So I’m making a not-so-bold prediction: Pierre Gauthier is done for the off-season.

Eric and I will argue over the long-term implications of the Pleks / Halak moves during our podcast – if I can ever find Eric – but for now…

…let’s give a warm welcome to the new Habs. They are just like the old Habs.

Don’t expect any big changes because:

a) Gauthier doesn’t have cap space to sign a major UFA to his lineup.

b) No major trade on the horizon either, because no team is going to take on Hamrlik and/ or the Kostitsyn brothers without some weird combination of picks, prospects, Markov, Gorges or Subban.

c) Gauthier could trade a couple of spots up or down in the draft…but again, the options are really limited in either direction so even if he does, it won’t be a major move.

But the biggest reason?

d) I think Pierre Gauthier, at heart, is a calculated, but cautious, General Manager. He sees what he wants and goes for it, but only if he is sure of all the parameters. And I think Gauthier, both as a function of the cap-strapped situation he finds himself in but also because of his personal management style, wants to stay in his sandbox. He does not want to make too many changes.  More on that later.

Right now, I think we all know how the rest of Gauthier’s playbook reads, in order of importance:

1. Sign Carey Price.

2. Sign a good back-up goalie for Carey Price (Marty Biron, Johan Hedberg, Antero Niittymaki and for the wild card: Chris Mason!!!??!!).

3. Tend to the well-rehearsed list of UFA / RFA’s already on the team (Dominic Moore, Max Laps, Pouliot, etc).

In other words, don’t expect Alex Frolov or Colby Armstrong to come on over. As much as they could help the team, there isn’t any money for them. The Habs may not be able to keep Dominic Moore either. Also say goodbye to Glen Metropolit, Marc Andre Bergeron and Paul Mara. But we all saw that coming, didn’t we?

Not to beat a dead Slovak goalie, but the Halak (or Price) trade was the one chip Gauthier had to really upend his lineup in a major way. A chance to clear space, get rid of expensive pieces and maybe, maybe, find a larger bigger / cheaper body to replace Tomas Plekanec – with enough room to chase a big UFA winger or two (hence Frolov or Armstrong).

But Gauthier didn’t go down that path.  He stayed inside his sandbox.

Take Exhibit A: The Halak trade. It seems reckless on the surface (and I am still convinced that Gauthier should have waited before pulling the trigger), but in reality, Gauthier sees this as minimal risk because he already knew who he was getting. Lars Eller (in exchange for Halak), and earlier in the season Aaron Palushaj (for Matt D’Agostini), were both selected by the Blues in the 2007 draft, right after the Habs picked Ryan Mcdonagh and PK Subban, respectively, that same year. Gauthier already knew those players very well, because the Habs were in a position to draft them (and in hindsight, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Benoit Pouliot – drafted right before the Habs picked you-know-who in 2005 – was the player the Habs reached out to when they were looking to dump Guillaume Latendresse).

Cautious. Calculated. He stayed in his sandbox, within his frame of knowledge. He is clearly comfortable here and sees no reason to leave.

Now I’m not saying that the next time the Habs make a deal with the Rangers, for example, prospects like Chris Kreider (picked after Louis Leblanc) or Bob Sanguinetti (after David Fisher in 2006) will be in play, but it wouldn’t surprise me. And I’m not just talking about this specific pattern either. It’s more general than that: A pattern that points to how Gauthier conducts business: He deals with what he knows.

And there were too many possible intangibles and permutations with all the possible Halak trades – and, yes, too many possible financial consequences of signing Halak and trading Price. Gauthier didn’t want any of that clutter. He chose to keep it simple. Block by block. One move at a time.

Back to off-season 2010:  Maybe Gauthier pots a Kozlov here, a Halpern there, if they agree to $ 1 million or less. Maybe Gauthier goes crazy and tries to finagle a Chris Higgins back in the fold (actually, might not be a bad idea and would fit the Gauthier sandbox)!!??!!!.

But aside from  a couple of TBD’s at back-up goalie and on the third line, we know what the 2010-2011 starting lineup will be for the Montreal Canadiens.

But in a week where Philly traded for Dan Hamhuis, Boston acquired Nathan Horton AND ALSO  Hall / Seguin, where Tampa, Washington, Florida, Ottawa and Carolina are going to draft big or make big changes, the big question is:

Are the Habs any better than last year?

Frankly, I have no idea. But I suspect, as of now, maybe not.