It’s about that time, people. That post-Labor Day period when anyone with a pair of shinpads suddenly starts chiming in with their prediction for what will happen in the upcoming NHL season. And why should we be any different?
Predicting what the Habs would ultimately do last season was next to impossible. Especially with half a roster’s worth of new players coming into le Centre Bell. This year should be less difficult to predict, but no less intriguing. With wunderboy Carey Price now entrenched as the team’s number-one keeper, the season could hinge on the play of one of the most-hyped players in franchise history. Throw in the unknown intangibles surrounding young players like Lars Eller, PK Subban, and Dustin Boyd and the 2010-11 season has all kinds of intrigue.
As usual, each of the three gentlemen behind the latest HabsRadio podcast have divergent opinions on where les Habitants will end up this season. Listen to their thoughts on the season and be sure to chime in with your own thoughts on how les boys in bleu, blanc, et rouge do this season.
Carey Price signed a two-year deal with the Habs today, for an annual cap hit of $2.75 million dollars.This deal is more than fair to both parties and I like it a lot.
1. It keeps Price hungry.
The message in this deal is clear: Price needs to perform at a higher level if he wants to earn that big multi-year contract. That’s a good thing.
True, signing Price to a short-term deal now may cost the Habs more in the long run. If Price performs well in the next two years, he will be asking for HUGE money. So yes, by comparison, Price would have been cheaper on the 3rd and 4th years of a long-term contract if he had signed for them now.
BUT – if the Habs HAD signed Price to a 4 or 5-year deal, like Eric suggested on last week’s podcast, who is to say that Price would have found the right motivation to perform at his very top level? All professional athletes, young goalies especially, are susceptible to a performance drop-off after signing a big deal in the same way that most athletes perform better in a contract year. It’s human nature.
No, in my mind, Carey Price develops into a better goalie if he stays sharp and hungry now and over the next two years. He has something to prove and that’s a good position for a young athlete to be in.
In two years time, if Price does well, I am sure the Habs will find the money and cap space to pay him accordingly. It will be tough, but they will do it.
As an aside: this deal signs Price at a full $1million LESS than the deal Halak signed with the St.Louis Blues. Athletes are competitive by nature. Don’t think for a second that Price won’t be checking Halak’s stats throughout the year and comparing them to his own. For that matter, every Habs fan will be keeping running tabs on the two goalies throughout the year. Price is aware of that, too.
2. It protects the Habs if Price fails.
Carey Price is only 23 years old and has only played in the NHL for three seasons. He may turn out to be a great goalie. But if he doesn’t, the Habs can wash their hands of him and move on.
This also reveals something else. If the Habs were 100% sure that Price will pan out they way they hope, they would have signed him to a longer deal now. But they do not have that certainty. Better to play it safe than be stuck with a bad 4-year deal with little wiggle room.
3. It’s reasonable on the cap
Before today, the Habs had just over $4.1 million in extra salary cap space. Price’s deal is extremely reasonable, as it still leaves them with about $1.38 million dollars in cap space . That leaves plenty of room for a late season trade at the deadline, when the Habs would only be responsible for the REMAINDER of that player’s contract.
My math may be a little off, but if Gauthier feels the need, he could trade for a pending UFA forward who is earning about $5million a year. Pending UFA’s happen to include Brad Richards and Alex Semin, among others.
It also insulates Gauthier a little bit in case he has to compensate for injuries (like last year when Gainey traded for MAB after Markov went down).
That’s a nice chip to have.
But on the other hand…..
One thing that still gnaws at me: Dominic Moore was signed by Tampa Bay at $1.1 million dollars. He wasn’t signed by the Habs, according to Pierre Gauthier, because of “salary cap reasons”. Jaroslav Halak was traded away, according to Pierre Gauthier, also because of “salary cap reasons”.
Well, unless Gauthier has something else up his sleeve, and he might, I think its safe to say the Habs could have kept Halak instead of Price if they had wanted to. Sure, the cap squeeze would have been tighter, but it was possible. If the Habs opted to stick with Price, which they did, they could also have kept Moore if they wanted to.
The real reason players like Halak and Moore were not signed: Dollar for dollar, Pierre Gauthier thinks Price will be a better goalie than Halak. And Gauthier did not want to re-sign Moore because he wants the younger kids to have a shot to perform this year (re: Lars Eller).
This just says to me that Gauthier used the cap as a bit of an easy excuse to explain his player personnel decisions, another reminder to never fully believe what a General Manager says to the media.
Can it be? Are the dog days of Summer really almost over? Ladies and Gentlemen, hockey season is almost upon us. More accurately, Habs training camp is almost upon us. And what better way to begin the countdown to Habs camp than with an all-new podcast? But not just any podcast, Habs fans.
This latest cast will be the first of what should be many to include the insight and corny jokes of TPinch. It may be too early to tell if he knows what he’s talking about, but he does somehow manage to add what certain Habs fans call a certain “je ne sais quoi.”
With a discussion of what to expect from les Habitants, Eric, Pat, and T officially get the 2010-2011 season rolling. Let the Lars Eller era begin!
After taking our beloved Habs all the way to the brink of the Stanley Cup Finals (almost single-handedly at that), we reward Jaroslav Halak with a … trade. Yet, after all but disappearing offensively in the later rounds of the playoffs, we reward Tomas Plekanec with a … 6 year, $30 million deal. Makes perfect sense right? We try and figure it all out.
Plekanec is signed and Halak is gone. So I’m making a not-so-bold prediction: Pierre Gauthier is done for the off-season.
Eric and I will argue over the long-term implications of the Pleks / Halak moves during our podcast – if I can ever find Eric – but for now…
…let’s give a warm welcome to the new Habs. They are just like the old Habs.
Don’t expect any big changes because:
a) Gauthier doesn’t have cap space to sign a major UFA to his lineup.
b) No major trade on the horizon either, because no team is going to take on Hamrlik and/ or the Kostitsyn brothers without some weird combination of picks, prospects, Markov, Gorges or Subban.
c) Gauthier could trade a couple of spots up or down in the draft…but again, the options are really limited in either direction so even if he does, it won’t be a major move.
But the biggest reason?
d) I think Pierre Gauthier, at heart, is a calculated, but cautious, General Manager. He sees what he wants and goes for it, but only if he is sure of all the parameters. And I think Gauthier, both as a function of the cap-strapped situation he finds himself in but also because of his personal management style, wants to stay in his sandbox. He does not want to make too many changes. More on that later.
Right now, I think we all know how the rest of Gauthier’s playbook reads, in order of importance:
1. Sign Carey Price.
2. Sign a good back-up goalie for Carey Price (Marty Biron, Johan Hedberg, Antero Niittymaki and for the wild card: Chris Mason!!!??!!).
3. Tend to the well-rehearsed list of UFA / RFA’s already on the team (Dominic Moore, Max Laps, Pouliot, etc).
In other words, don’t expect Alex Frolov or Colby Armstrong to come on over. As much as they could help the team, there isn’t any money for them. The Habs may not be able to keep Dominic Moore either. Also say goodbye to Glen Metropolit, Marc Andre Bergeron and Paul Mara. But we all saw that coming, didn’t we?
Not to beat a dead Slovak goalie, but the Halak (or Price) trade was the one chip Gauthier had to really upend his lineup in a major way. A chance to clear space, get rid of expensive pieces and maybe, maybe, find a larger bigger / cheaper body to replace Tomas Plekanec – with enough room to chase a big UFA winger or two (hence Frolov or Armstrong).
But Gauthier didn’t go down that path. He stayed inside his sandbox.
Take Exhibit A: The Halak trade. It seems reckless on the surface (and I am still convinced that Gauthier should have waited before pulling the trigger), but in reality, Gauthier sees this as minimal risk because he already knew who he was getting. Lars Eller (in exchange for Halak), and earlier in the season Aaron Palushaj (for Matt D’Agostini), were both selected by the Blues in the 2007 draft, right after the Habs picked Ryan Mcdonagh and PK Subban, respectively, that same year. Gauthier already knew those players very well, because the Habs were in a position to draft them (and in hindsight, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Benoit Pouliot – drafted right before the Habs picked you-know-who in 2005 – was the player the Habs reached out to when they were looking to dump Guillaume Latendresse).
Cautious. Calculated. He stayed in his sandbox, within his frame of knowledge. He is clearly comfortable here and sees no reason to leave.
Now I’m not saying that the next time the Habs make a deal with the Rangers, for example, prospects like Chris Kreider (picked after Louis Leblanc) or Bob Sanguinetti (after David Fisher in 2006) will be in play, but it wouldn’t surprise me. And I’m not just talking about this specific pattern either. It’s more general than that: A pattern that points to how Gauthier conducts business: He deals with what he knows.
And there were too many possible intangibles and permutations with all the possible Halak trades – and, yes, too many possible financial consequences of signing Halak and trading Price. Gauthier didn’t want any of that clutter. He chose to keep it simple. Block by block. One move at a time.
Back to off-season 2010: Maybe Gauthier pots a Kozlov here, a Halpern there, if they agree to $ 1 million or less. Maybe Gauthier goes crazy and tries to finagle a Chris Higgins back in the fold (actually, might not be a bad idea and would fit the Gauthier sandbox)!!??!!!.
But aside from a couple of TBD’s at back-up goalie and on the third line, we know what the 2010-2011 starting lineup will be for the Montreal Canadiens.
But in a week where Philly traded for Dan Hamhuis, Boston acquired Nathan Horton AND ALSO Hall / Seguin, where Tampa, Washington, Florida, Ottawa and Carolina are going to draft big or make big changes, the big question is:
Are the Habs any better than last year?
Frankly, I have no idea. But I suspect, as of now, maybe not.
We got rushed back from our summer vacay for this?????
Jaroslav Halak traded for…Lars Eller and Ian Schultz!!!!!????!!!!!!!
I HATE THIS AWFUL DEAL. I HATE IT. I HATE IT. I HATE IT. I HATE IT.
Why do I hate it? Glad you asked:
1 – Gauthier could have gotten more if he had let Halak walk as an RFA!!!
* That’s right! Gauthier NEGOTIATED AGAINST HIMSELF. Seriously. Brian Burke had to give up two first rounders and a second round pick for the RIGHT to sign Phil Kessel. Had Boston just let Kessel go, they would have been awarded a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick.
* Gauthier didn’t even get that in this deal. He got a former 1st rounder and a former 3rd rounder. That’s it! Seriously???
*UPDATE: Yes, I know Halak was arbitration eligible, and thus, he has more leverage. But as a negotiating point, Halak is still an RFA. The Habs could have pushed him to take a low contract if they really wanted to.
2 – Why didn’t Gauthier wait until the draft to pressure other teams into giving more?
* There is no way you can convince me that this is the best deal Gauthier could get. No way. No how.
* You know what else this tells me? Because there were so many other goalies available this season, Gauthier was scared of losing out on a good trade. He was scared all the other teams would move faster than him. But Gauthier had the best two horses in the business. That was his only leverage. And it was excellent leverage. He should have had faith in his leverage. Instead, he blinked. And after giving up a second rounder for Dominic Moore weeks before the trade deadline, all the other GM’s now know that Gauthier is weak. The next trade will be even tougher for Gauthier to make.
3 – Why didn’t Gauthier consider trading Price for a greater bounty?
* I don’t know who the better goalie is between Halak and Price, but I do know that Gauthier could have gotten more for Price. The Flyers, Oilers, Lightning, and yes, the Blues, were all interested. Tsn.ca says the Sharks were too. All of them would have surely given up more for Price, closer to the draft.
* I know, I know, money had a part to play in this. Halak would cost more. MUCH MORE. OK, I understand that. BUT STILL – was there a deal to be had for Jeff Carter for Carey Price and others? I am betting that there was. What about a trade for Patrick Sharp? The Hawks needed to dump salary. Now, he will end up on the Leafs! Hell, what about Oshie? Backes? NATHAN FUCKING HORTON? Any of those guys are better than what Gauthier got!
If any of these available centers come in, Gauthier doesn’t have to sign Plekanec.
* which brings me to…
4 – Gauthier is about to get raped by Thomas Plekanec.
* Pleks and his camp now know, for a fact, that Gauthier has no choice but to sign Pleks. Because Gauthier was unable to land a Jeff Carter in the trade that the entire league knew was coming, Gauthier’s best and ONLY option is to sign Pleks. And now Pleks doesn’t have to rush. Every day that he waits to sign, he can add another 100K to his annual salary. At least. How does $5.5 million sound to you?
5 – Gauthier will also have to over-pay for Marty Biron.
* Gauthier knows he needs a strong, reliable back-up to help Carey’s development: emotional, professional, and on the ice. It’s a thankless job in front of a porous defense that won’t have Andrei Markov back until November.
6 – Why prospects? OK, why THESE prospects?
* Lars Eller and Ian Schultz!!!! Seriously, had anyone ever heard of these guys until today? Listen, I totally get why Gauthier would not want to trade a young goalie like Halak for an aging veteran. I understand why he would want to focus on youth. I understand why he would want to send Halak to the Western Conference too. But these “prospects” haven’t even played a season in the NHL!!! They weren’t on ANYONE’S radar. Except for maybe the robo-scouts / video cameras the Habs are going to use instead of real live human scouts.
* These guys are going to start the season in Hamilton. But Hamilton HAS NO COACH. How can Gauthier be sure that these prospects are going to develop, when the Guru is gone to Tampa, Muller is in flux, and player development is a known weak point of the Habs organization?
* Also – how does Gauthier trade for prospects when almost every single heralded young forward on the Habs struggled under Jacques Martin? The Kostitsyns, Lapierre, Pacioretty, Latendresse / Pouliot, D’Agostini, they ALL struggled last year. At some point, you might want to hedge your bets.
I guess Hamilton will have a hell of a team this year, though.
* UPDATE: It seems Gauthier is really high on Lars Eller . He projects him as a “Number 2 center” and thinks Eller may even start the season with the big league Habs. The operative word here is THINKS. Eller is not money in the back. And the Habs don’t really handle young talent properly. And Halak was in the Conn Smythe discussion before the 3rd round loss to the Flyers. You tell me who you would rather have on your team?
* UPDATE 2: I fully and freely admit that if Eller becomes a great player, maybe this deal won’t look so bad. Maybe a few years down the road. Right now? It sucks.
Habs are through, just as we all expected, right? Sure. You think Gary Bettman is happy about this? How about NBC? The Habs have given new meaning to the term “refuse to lose” and the entire city is LOVING it. We try to pinpoint what it is that makes this team do the impossible, whether it will continue all the way to the cup, and how all of this might affect next year. Oh, and we go a little nuts.
What is there to say that hasn’t already been said? Here’s a team that, on paper, and in terms of injuries, should no way no how be in a position to eliminate the defending Stanley Cup champions, this after taking down the best team in the regular season in 7 games as well!
Whatever happens, the Habs have caught lighting in a bottle and it’s been an amazing run.
But one thing sticks out: How so many of the Habs have really stepped it up to a level beyond what we thought possible, and how some “champions” have reverted to boy status. So here, on a slow day, is a totally subjective list of the MEN vs BOYS in this series:
THE REAL MEN
1. Hal Gill: Playing mucho-minutes, shaking off the early-season boos, and doing nothing less than holding down the two best players in the game. Yeah, Hal is MAN #1. If he pulled himself out of Game 6, it’s because the pain threshold was just too much. Which means it would be enough to make us mere mortals faint. And he’s a damn leader.
2. Mike Cammalleri / Brian Gionta: These pint size forwards are getting it done down in the corners, in the crease, and in front of the net. And no one has an answer for them yet.
3.Jordan Staal: Coming off a foot laceration? Are you kidding me?
"I don't hurt, I swear"
4. Josh Gorges: This guys bangs into the boards, into the corners, smacks into the goalpost, and he just shakes it off, over and over again. He’s the energizer bunny / indestructible pop up toy. Seriously – I think you would need to hang some garlic around your neck and drive a wooden stake into his heart for him to even realize what pain feels like. This guy is unbelievable.
5. Jaroslav Halak: He’s a “small” goalie, but he shakes off net crashers, team-wide doubt, Carey Price’s “Franchise” status, and the crazy pressure of never having played in the playoffs…what heart. WHAT A MAN.
6. Bill Guerin / Max Talbot / Chris Kunitz: They go about their business quietly, cleanly, with class and calm. All are banged up, Guerin more so, and they deserve the manly salute.
7. PK Subban: He was in Hamilton two weeks ago. He played 30 minutes last night. He also stuck to Crosby like glue, in the absence of Hal Gill in Game 6. Talk about stepping it up.
THE WEE BOYS
1. Sidney Crosby: Yeah, he’s a champ. He’s a national hero. And the face of the NHL. He also still lives with the team owner. Sorry, but at his age? He whines at every call. And that cross check against Pleky after the game? “It’s only Plekanec” says the champ. What a gutless dick.
"But I Wanna the Puck"
2. Sergei Kostitsyn: The whole team hates him now. What a pity.
3. Matt Cooke: Crosby without all the talent. Or charm. Or usefulness. Go away already.
And tomorrow night, we hope for the best in what will be a Game 7 classic for sure.
But no matter what happens, the MEN listed above, and so many more, have proved themselves worthy of their sweaters, and the adulation they’ve been getting from their hero-starved fans.
This is just plain fun. Somehow, some way, this team has taken Montreal by complete surprise and absolutely captured the imagination of the entire hockey world. It seems no matter what they face, they find the way to bounce back from it. Heart epitomized. But now with both Markov and Spacek out, facing the Staal-less Pittsburgh Penguins, they’re up against an arguably bigger challenge than even the Washington Capitals. Can they really keep it going?
