Carey Price signed a two-year deal with the Habs today, for an annual cap hit of $2.75 million dollars.This deal is more than fair to both parties and I like it a lot.

1. It keeps Price hungry.

The message in this deal is clear: Price needs to perform at a higher level if he wants to earn that big multi-year contract. That’s a good thing.

True, signing Price to a short-term deal now may cost the Habs more in the long run. If Price performs well in the next two years, he will be asking for HUGE money. So yes, by comparison, Price would have been cheaper on the 3rd and 4th years of a long-term contract if he had signed for them now.

BUT – if the Habs HAD signed Price to a 4 or 5-year deal, like Eric suggested on last week’s podcast, who is to say that Price would have found the right motivation to perform at his very top level? All professional athletes, young goalies especially, are susceptible to a performance drop-off after signing a big deal in the same way that most athletes perform better in a contract year. It’s human nature.

No, in my mind, Carey Price develops into a better goalie if he stays sharp and hungry now and over the next two years. He has something to prove and that’s a good position for a young athlete to be in.

In two years time, if Price does well, I am sure the Habs will find the money and cap space to pay him accordingly. It will be tough, but they will do it.

As an aside: this deal signs Price at a full $1million LESS than the deal Halak signed with the St.Louis Blues. Athletes are competitive by nature. Don’t think for a second that Price won’t be checking Halak’s stats throughout the year and comparing them to his own. For that matter, every Habs fan will be keeping running tabs on the two goalies throughout the year. Price is aware of that, too.

2. It protects the Habs if Price fails.

Carey Price is only 23 years old and has only played in the NHL for three seasons. He may turn out to be a great goalie. But if he doesn’t, the Habs can wash their hands of him and move on.

This also reveals something else. If the Habs were 100% sure that Price will pan out they way they hope, they would have signed him to a longer deal now. But they do not have that certainty. Better to play it safe than be stuck with a bad 4-year deal with little wiggle room.

3. It’s reasonable on the cap

Before today, the Habs had just over $4.1 million in extra salary cap space. Price’s deal is extremely reasonable, as it still leaves them with about $1.38 million dollars in cap space . That leaves plenty of room for a late season trade at the deadline, when the Habs would only be responsible for the REMAINDER of that player’s contract.

My math may be a little off, but if Gauthier feels the need, he could trade for a pending UFA forward who is earning about $5million a year. Pending UFA’s happen to include Brad Richards and Alex Semin, among others.

It also insulates Gauthier a little bit in case he has to compensate for injuries (like last year when Gainey traded for MAB after Markov went down).

That’s a nice chip to have.

But on the other hand…..

One thing that still gnaws at me: Dominic Moore was signed by Tampa Bay at $1.1 million dollars. He wasn’t signed by the Habs, according to Pierre Gauthier, because of “salary cap reasons”. Jaroslav Halak was traded away, according to Pierre Gauthier, also because of “salary cap reasons”.

Well, unless Gauthier has something else up his sleeve, and he might, I think its safe to say the Habs could have kept Halak instead of Price if they had wanted to. Sure, the cap squeeze would have been tighter, but it was possible. If the Habs opted to stick with Price, which they did, they could also have kept Moore if they wanted to.

The real reason players like Halak and Moore were not signed: Dollar for dollar, Pierre Gauthier thinks Price will be a better goalie than Halak. And Gauthier did not want to re-sign Moore because he wants the younger kids to have a shot to perform this year (re: Lars Eller).

This just says to me that Gauthier used the cap as a bit of an easy excuse to explain his player personnel decisions, another reminder to never fully believe what a General Manager says to the media.

This latest cast will be the first of what should be many to include the insight and corny jokes of TPinch. It may be too early to tell if he knows what he’s talking about, but he does somehow manage to add what certain Habs fans call a certain “je ne sais quoi.”

With a discussion of what to expect from les Habitants, Eric, Pat, and T officially get the 2010-2011 season rolling. Let the Lars Eller era begin!

…and now, where were we?

Oh yes. Pierre Gauthier’s latest “blunder” is trading AHL backup Cedric Desjardins for some other goalie who will never play in the NHL. I’m not one to defend Gauthier, but the hysterical reaction found on other blogs and even the mainstream news media is ridiculous.

Seriously, the fake-outrage blasting over the net and airwaves makes us all look bad. This is a minor deal. If the Expos were still in town, this “story” would be buried on page C7 of the Sports section.

It won’t do anyone any good for us bloggers to scream bloody murder every time Habs management makes a decision we don’t agree with, or more likely, we don’t quite understand yet. First of all, how do we know that this trade will be a disaster? Granted, there have been a few trades lately that don’t make sense to me, but Gauthier hasn’t even been the GM for a year. The Habs have yet to play a regular season game with their new lineup. Scratch that: The Habs don’t even HAVE a final lineup yet. Exhibition season is still 35 DAYS AWAY.

In truth, none of us have any true idea whether Gauthier’s moves are going to work out. At this point, we can only SPECULATE. That’s really what all of this is about.

So, if we can only speculate, what the hell else are we going to write about?

I have no clue, actually. In fact, we’ve been trying to come up with something for the last six weeks. And ummm…we’re still working on it.

So Eric and I figured now would be a good time to invite someone new to the proceedings.  Hey, why not, right?

His name is Tal. He’s an actual, you know, journalist. He has written for the New York Times, ESPN, and some other publications. He’s from Montreal, he lives in New York (which will make our LA-NY-MTL podcasts even more complicated to schedule now), and frankly, he seems a little smarter than us. Most important, though, he is a die-hard Habs fan just like me, Eric and all the rest of you…which really means he’s another writer who goes through long periods of unemployment.

If he doesn’t work out, we can always ignore him when he calls us on Skype.

But you can expect that same fan-friendly, fan-directed speculation (with a little more credibility now) about all things Habs. And we promise to be reasonable.

Sometimes.

ps – We are going to get a jump on the season. Look for our new podcast next Monday, August 23rd. Hopefully, we’ll have something to talk about by then.

Maybe.

http://www.progressive.org/images/blogstuff/dewey_defeats_truman.jpg

I am scratching my head a little about this. Why trade for Ellis and not sign him at such a favorable rate? Ellis is certainly better than Auld.

Maybe Ellis wanted a guarantee of 40 + games? But then why did Ellis give several interviews in Montreal saying he would be comfortable playing behind Price? Maybe that’s what he said in public but felt otherwise in private?

Or, is the salary cap really that tight that even an extra $500k would cause issues for Pierre Gauthier? Maybe Gauthier really is planning to keep Dominic Moore, and wants to save every penny? But then why not sign Biron, who comes in even cheaper, and can mentor Carey and take the heat off of him with the press? Maybe Gauthier didn’t want to give him a two-year deal and didn’t want to run the risk of having the local press jeer on Carey in favor of homeboy Biron?

Or, maybe, with so many of the big name free agents already signed, Gauthier has some other kind of trade up his sleeve to get a player like Frolov? I still can’t see this happening, but maybe.

In Auld, Gauthier gets a very low-cost goalie, who is younger than 30, has a lot of international experience and has put up some decent numbers. Maybe decent enough that Gauthier thinks the extra $500k going to Ellis could be better spent elsewhere?

But I can’t help but think that getting Auld also serves as some kind of peace offering to Carey Price as well. Think about it: Auld is the same size as Price, so goalie coach Pierre Groulx will work with both goalies the same way, so Auld and Price will be learning off the same page. This limits the potential for any confusion. Auld also comes from the West Coast, too. Added bonus for BC native Price.

But maybe its because Auld is clearly not going to be a number 1 goalie, that makes him so attractive to Gauthier. Price will never be threatened by Auld or fear that his job is always at risk. No Halak breathing down his back.If Gauthier had signed Ellis, I imagine the possibility would have always existed that Ellis could have taken over.

Two things are for sure, I think:

1 – Gauthier has a lot of faith in Price: Price will play A LOT of games. We already knew that.

2- Price’s contract will cost more than we originally thought. There is no other explanation for why Gauthier would go for Auld, when marginally more expensive, but much better goalies were available. The only reason I can think of, barring an attempt at keeping Moore or some other move, is that Price is asking for $2.5 – $3million / year, minimum, and that puts more pressure on the cap.

I hope I am wrong about this. I hope the Auld signing comes down to money / something else in the works. But if it doesn’t, signing Auld, to me, looks like the Habs are once again coddling a player who has not yet fully earned the mantle of Number One Goalie.

This really does strike me as weird.

I actually like today’s trade sending Sergei Kostitsyn for pending UFA’s center Dustin Boyd and goalie Dan Ellis.

But it does have shades of that earlier pickpocketing that saw the Habs nab a player who could skate, shoot and hit (Courtnall) in exchange for a tough 4th liner whose career was on the downturn (Kordic):

a) There is no question that Nashville got the more talented player in this trade. The Habs get a potential 4th liner for a potential 2nd liner.

b) Nashville got cheaper, the Habs more expensive.

c) Boyd and Ellis are UFA’s, but Kostitsyn is signed.

But the fact that Pierre Gauthier was able to get something for S. Kostitsyn is a miracle. The fact that he got a capable 4th liner who is stronger, bigger, faster and ten years younger than Glen Metropolit and actually fills a need for the Habs, is something good too.Frankly, I am shocked that Gauthier was able to get as much as he did, considering Kostitsyn has poisoned the well so vociferously.

But one of these players needs to be signed for this trade to make any sense at all.

Plus, this trade raises a lot of  intangibles:

a) Will the Habs be able to sign Dan Ellis? If they do, this trade could be a huge win for them. If they don’t, and Sergei plays to most of his potential, Nashville wins this trade hands down. My gut says Ellis walks, because he is only 30, and might want to sign with a team that needs someone to play 40-50 games, pay him more than his current salary of $1.8 million but not want to pay out Tim Thomas money.

My gut: Ellis will look to San Jose or Tampa Bay before he even signs with Montreal! Boyd might just sign with the Habs, though.

b) Could this put more pressure on Carey Price to sign with the Habs? There might be some gamesmanship at play here. The Habs need to sign Price, but since the Halak trade, Price had all the leverage: He knew the Habs didn’t have any other goalie to negotiate with, so he could take his time until an offer came that he liked. Well, now the Habs have someone else to negotiate with, at least until July 1st. And if Price doesn’t get an offer sheet from another team, he is stuck with the Habs terms. This way, Pierre Gauthier might be sending a message: “I am going to sign this guy if I can’t sign you”.

My gut says: I may be over-thinking things here.

c)How will this effect the play of Andrei Kostitsyn (assuming he stays on):I’ve always found Sergei to be the more social and um… mentally stronger, of the two brothers. Sergei strikes me as someone who, in the right situation, can make friends wherever he goes. Andrei? Not so much. Andrei always produced better when his younger brother was around. Sergei didn’t seem to be effected by any of that, one way or the other. The question is this: Was Sergei a distraction for his brother or a friendly presence that made him more comfortable? The answer holds the key to Andrei’s season.

My gut: Andrei starts slow, but will eventually adjust. Sergei will have a great season in the NHL one of these years.

d) Post-Halak trade, what happens to Lars Eller and Dominic Moore? This is the trickiest question of all. Assuming Boyd takes the 4th line center position, that leaves the 3rd line center slot open for Dominic Moore (or Max Lapierre). So what would happen to Lars Eller? Does he stay down in the AHL or do the Habs play him on the wing?

This is another ramification of the Halak trade. For the trade to pay off and for Eller to live up to his billing, the Habs need to take every opportunity to develop Eller properly, which to me, means that he plays good minutes in his natural position and that the team is very patient with him and clear that they don’t need him to produce right away. But if he is good enough to make the Habs out of training camp, and Moore is also signed, where does Eller play? If the Habs let Moore go and pencil in Eller in the 3rd slot, well, what happens if Eller needs some fine tuning and experiences the inevitable hiccup? Who plays then?

My gut: Sign Moore, slot him in for the 3rd line. If Eller makes the team, let Eller play center on the 4th line and Boyd can play wing. He wasn’t brought in for his scoring touch anyway.

Things are certainly more interesting than I thought they would be just a few days ago.

Eric and I will argue over the long-term implications of the Pleks / Halak moves during our podcast – if I can ever find Eric – but for now…

…let’s give a warm welcome to the new Habs. They are just like the old Habs.

Don’t expect any big changes because:

a) Gauthier doesn’t have cap space to sign a major UFA to his lineup.

b) No major trade on the horizon either, because no team is going to take on Hamrlik and/ or the Kostitsyn brothers without some weird combination of picks, prospects, Markov, Gorges or Subban.

c) Gauthier could trade a couple of spots up or down in the draft…but again, the options are really limited in either direction so even if he does, it won’t be a major move.

But the biggest reason?

d) I think Pierre Gauthier, at heart, is a calculated, but cautious, General Manager. He sees what he wants and goes for it, but only if he is sure of all the parameters. And I think Gauthier, both as a function of the cap-strapped situation he finds himself in but also because of his personal management style, wants to stay in his sandbox. He does not want to make too many changes.  More on that later.

Right now, I think we all know how the rest of Gauthier’s playbook reads, in order of importance:

1. Sign Carey Price.

2. Sign a good back-up goalie for Carey Price (Marty Biron, Johan Hedberg, Antero Niittymaki and for the wild card: Chris Mason!!!??!!).

3. Tend to the well-rehearsed list of UFA / RFA’s already on the team (Dominic Moore, Max Laps, Pouliot, etc).

In other words, don’t expect Alex Frolov or Colby Armstrong to come on over. As much as they could help the team, there isn’t any money for them. The Habs may not be able to keep Dominic Moore either. Also say goodbye to Glen Metropolit, Marc Andre Bergeron and Paul Mara. But we all saw that coming, didn’t we?

Not to beat a dead Slovak goalie, but the Halak (or Price) trade was the one chip Gauthier had to really upend his lineup in a major way. A chance to clear space, get rid of expensive pieces and maybe, maybe, find a larger bigger / cheaper body to replace Tomas Plekanec – with enough room to chase a big UFA winger or two (hence Frolov or Armstrong).

But Gauthier didn’t go down that path.  He stayed inside his sandbox.

Take Exhibit A: The Halak trade. It seems reckless on the surface (and I am still convinced that Gauthier should have waited before pulling the trigger), but in reality, Gauthier sees this as minimal risk because he already knew who he was getting. Lars Eller (in exchange for Halak), and earlier in the season Aaron Palushaj (for Matt D’Agostini), were both selected by the Blues in the 2007 draft, right after the Habs picked Ryan Mcdonagh and PK Subban, respectively, that same year. Gauthier already knew those players very well, because the Habs were in a position to draft them (and in hindsight, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Benoit Pouliot – drafted right before the Habs picked you-know-who in 2005 – was the player the Habs reached out to when they were looking to dump Guillaume Latendresse).

Cautious. Calculated. He stayed in his sandbox, within his frame of knowledge. He is clearly comfortable here and sees no reason to leave.

Now I’m not saying that the next time the Habs make a deal with the Rangers, for example, prospects like Chris Kreider (picked after Louis Leblanc) or Bob Sanguinetti (after David Fisher in 2006) will be in play, but it wouldn’t surprise me. And I’m not just talking about this specific pattern either. It’s more general than that: A pattern that points to how Gauthier conducts business: He deals with what he knows.

And there were too many possible intangibles and permutations with all the possible Halak trades – and, yes, too many possible financial consequences of signing Halak and trading Price. Gauthier didn’t want any of that clutter. He chose to keep it simple. Block by block. One move at a time.

Back to off-season 2010:  Maybe Gauthier pots a Kozlov here, a Halpern there, if they agree to $ 1 million or less. Maybe Gauthier goes crazy and tries to finagle a Chris Higgins back in the fold (actually, might not be a bad idea and would fit the Gauthier sandbox)!!??!!!.

But aside from  a couple of TBD’s at back-up goalie and on the third line, we know what the 2010-2011 starting lineup will be for the Montreal Canadiens.

But in a week where Philly traded for Dan Hamhuis, Boston acquired Nathan Horton AND ALSO  Hall / Seguin, where Tampa, Washington, Florida, Ottawa and Carolina are going to draft big or make big changes, the big question is:

Are the Habs any better than last year?

Frankly, I have no idea. But I suspect, as of now, maybe not.

We got rushed back from our summer vacay for this?????

Jaroslav Halak traded for…Lars Eller and Ian Schultz!!!!!????!!!!!!!

I HATE THIS AWFUL DEAL. I HATE IT. I HATE IT. I HATE IT. I HATE IT.

Why do I hate it? Glad you asked:

1  – Gauthier could have gotten more if he had let Halak walk as an RFA!!!

2 – Why didn’t Gauthier wait until the draft to pressure other teams into giving more?

* There is no way you can convince me that this is the best deal Gauthier could get. No way.  No how.

* You know what else this tells me? Because there were so many other goalies available this season, Gauthier was scared of losing out on a good trade. He was scared all the other teams would move faster than him. But Gauthier had the best two horses in the business. That was his only leverage. And it was excellent leverage. He should have had faith in his leverage. Instead, he blinked. And after giving up a second rounder for Dominic Moore weeks before the trade deadline, all the other GM’s now know that Gauthier is weak.  The next trade will be even tougher for Gauthier to make.

3 – Why didn’t Gauthier consider trading Price for a greater bounty?

* I don’t know who the better goalie is between Halak and Price, but I do know that Gauthier could have gotten more for Price. The Flyers, Oilers, Lightning, and yes, the Blues, were all interested. Tsn.ca says the Sharks were too. All of them would have surely given up more for Price, closer to the draft.

* I know, I know, money had a part to play in this. Halak would cost more. MUCH MORE. OK, I understand that. BUT STILL – was there a deal to be had for Jeff Carter for Carey Price and others? I am betting that there was. What about a trade for Patrick Sharp? The Hawks needed to dump salary. Now, he will end up on the Leafs! Hell, what about Oshie? Backes? NATHAN FUCKING HORTON? Any of those guys are better than what Gauthier got!

If any of these available centers  come in, Gauthier doesn’t have to sign Plekanec.

* which brings me to…

4 – Gauthier is about to get raped by Thomas Plekanec.

* Pleks and his camp now know, for a fact, that Gauthier has no choice but to sign Pleks. Because Gauthier was unable to land a Jeff Carter in the trade that the entire league knew was coming, Gauthier’s best and ONLY option is to sign Pleks. And now Pleks doesn’t have to rush. Every day that he waits to sign, he can add another 100K to his annual salary. At least. How does $5.5 million sound to you?

5 – Gauthier will also have to over-pay for Marty Biron.

* Gauthier knows he needs a strong, reliable back-up to help Carey’s development: emotional, professional, and on the ice. It’s a thankless job in front of a porous defense that won’t have Andrei Markov back until November.

6 – Why prospects? OK, why THESE prospects?

* Lars Eller and Ian Schultz!!!! Seriously, had anyone ever heard of these guys until today? Listen, I totally get why Gauthier would not want to trade a young goalie like Halak for an aging veteran. I understand why he would want to focus on youth. I understand why he would want to send Halak to the Western Conference too. But these “prospects” haven’t even played a season in the NHL!!! They weren’t on ANYONE’S radar. Except for maybe the robo-scouts / video cameras the Habs are going to use instead of real live human scouts.

* These guys are going to start the season in Hamilton. But Hamilton HAS NO COACH. How can Gauthier be sure that these prospects are going to develop, when the Guru is gone to Tampa, Muller is in flux, and player development is a known weak point of the Habs organization?

* Also – how does Gauthier trade for prospects when almost every single heralded young forward on the Habs struggled under Jacques Martin? The Kostitsyns, Lapierre, Pacioretty, Latendresse / Pouliot,  D’Agostini, they ALL struggled last year. At some point, you might want to hedge your bets.

I guess Hamilton will have a hell of a team this year, though.

* UPDATE: It seems Gauthier is really high on Lars Eller . He projects him as a “Number 2 center” and thinks Eller may even start the season with the big league Habs. The operative word here is THINKS. Eller is not money in the back. And the Habs don’t really handle young talent properly. And Halak was in the Conn Smythe discussion before the 3rd round loss to the Flyers. You tell me who you would rather have on your team?

* UPDATE 2: I fully and freely admit that if Eller becomes a great player, maybe this deal won’t look so bad. Maybe a few years down the road. Right now? It sucks.

Sigh. I just don’t get it.

no one else is smiling, chump

I HATE THIS TRADE!!!!!

Not much of a market, in the end, eh?

But let’s review: Paul Mara, Glen Metropolit, Marc Andre Bergeron. I know. Try not to salivate at the GREAT DEALS we had for other teams (’BUT FOR YOU, SPECIAL PRICE’).

A review of our “assets”: MAB is injured, Mara’s been a disappointment. If there were any takers – a fourth round pick, the proverbial bag of pucks, some cookies from Ottawa – PG would have relinquished. Gladly. Metro has been helpful, but did PG dangle him? He could have got some value – especially since Metro won’t be back with the Habs next season – but probably no higher than a second round pick, which we all know PG doesn’t want.

Anything else?

Oh yes…..trading Matt D’Agostini for 20 year old St. Louis prospect Aaron Palushaj?

Why do I get the sinking feeling this one will come back to bite the Habs in the arse? I have more faith in D’Ags than I do in coach’s ability to get the best out of the Habs forward prospects.

D’Ags was injured this year and his minutes shrank when he returned. He had no chance. Best case scenario: The Habs basically press the reset button on D’Ags, go younger and let Palushaj develop with guru Boucher (isn’t it funny how Boucher has become the fixer for this organization’s dudlier prospect picks?)

We’ll see who won this trade in two years, or never.

Bottom line: This trade deadline was for the birds, both for the bargain-bin quality of players who were available (Jeff Halpern, Frederik Modin and Stephane Yelle OH MY!!??!!!), and the feeding frenzy desperation with which the major websites treated this all important day.

Yawn!

As for the Habs – after the way BG’s succession was handled and realizing most of our local roster is several notches below Olympics quality, my confidence in this organization is pretty low. So I’m just happy no really stupid decisions were made rummaging through the bin.

Hey – I’ll take the victories where I can find them.

And I promise to be cheerier tomorrow.