Russ Courtnall for John Kordic – Redux

Just kidding. But it’s a nice headline isn’t it?

I actually like today’s trade sending Sergei Kostitsyn for pending UFA’s center Dustin Boyd and goalie Dan Ellis.

But it does have shades of that earlier pickpocketing that saw the Habs nab a player who could skate, shoot and hit (Courtnall) in exchange for a tough 4th liner whose career was on the downturn (Kordic):

a) There is no question that Nashville got the more talented player in this trade. The Habs get a potential 4th liner for a potential 2nd liner.

b) Nashville got cheaper, the Habs more expensive.

c) Boyd and Ellis are UFA’s, but Kostitsyn is signed.

But the fact that Pierre Gauthier was able to get something for S. Kostitsyn is a miracle. The fact that he got a capable 4th liner who is stronger, bigger, faster and ten years younger than Glen Metropolit and actually fills a need for the Habs, is something good too.Frankly, I am shocked that Gauthier was able to get as much as he did, considering Kostitsyn has poisoned the well so vociferously.

But one of these players needs to be signed for this trade to make any sense at all.

Plus, this trade raises a lot of  intangibles:

a) Will the Habs be able to sign Dan Ellis? If they do, this trade could be a huge win for them. If they don’t, and Sergei plays to most of his potential, Nashville wins this trade hands down. My gut says Ellis walks, because he is only 30, and might want to sign with a team that needs someone to play 40-50 games, pay him more than his current salary of $1.8 million but not want to pay out Tim Thomas money.

My gut: Ellis will look to San Jose or Tampa Bay before he even signs with Montreal! Boyd might just sign with the Habs, though.

b) Could this put more pressure on Carey Price to sign with the Habs? There might be some gamesmanship at play here. The Habs need to sign Price, but since the Halak trade, Price had all the leverage: He knew the Habs didn’t have any other goalie to negotiate with, so he could take his time until an offer came that he liked. Well, now the Habs have someone else to negotiate with, at least until July 1st. And if Price doesn’t get an offer sheet from another team, he is stuck with the Habs terms. This way, Pierre Gauthier might be sending a message: “I am going to sign this guy if I can’t sign you”.

My gut says: I may be over-thinking things here.

c)How will this effect the play of Andrei Kostitsyn (assuming he stays on):I’ve always found Sergei to be the more social and um… mentally stronger, of the two brothers. Sergei strikes me as someone who, in the right situation, can make friends wherever he goes. Andrei? Not so much. Andrei always produced better when his younger brother was around. Sergei didn’t seem to be effected by any of that, one way or the other. The question is this: Was Sergei a distraction for his brother or a friendly presence that made him more comfortable? The answer holds the key to Andrei’s season.

My gut: Andrei starts slow, but will eventually adjust. Sergei will have a great season in the NHL one of these years.

d) Post-Halak trade, what happens to Lars Eller and Dominic Moore? This is the trickiest question of all. Assuming Boyd takes the 4th line center position, that leaves the 3rd line center slot open for Dominic Moore (or Max Lapierre). So what would happen to Lars Eller? Does he stay down in the AHL or do the Habs play him on the wing?

This is another ramification of the Halak trade. For the trade to pay off and for Eller to live up to his billing, the Habs need to take every opportunity to develop Eller properly, which to me, means that he plays good minutes in his natural position and that the team is very patient with him and clear that they don’t need him to produce right away. But if he is good enough to make the Habs out of training camp, and Moore is also signed, where does Eller play? If the Habs let Moore go and pencil in Eller in the 3rd slot, well, what happens if Eller needs some fine tuning and experiences the inevitable hiccup? Who plays then?

My gut: Sign Moore, slot him in for the 3rd line. If Eller makes the team, let Eller play center on the 4th line and Boyd can play wing. He wasn’t brought in for his scoring touch anyway.

Things are certainly more interesting than I thought they would be just a few days ago.

Episode 24 – LOUD NOISES!!!

For our first official Playoff Podcast, we turn up the intensity a few notches and are pretty much at each other’s throats for most of the show.  You gotta hear it to believe it.  Somehow amidst the fire, we manage to delve into how the Habs lost control of the series so suddenly, who starts in nets for game 4, and who starts on D: O’Byrne, Bergeron, or … Subban?

This one’s a can’t miss if we’ve ever had one…

 

 Habs Radio Episode 24 [56:01m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Episode 22 – Habs Radio Pessah Edition

On the eve of Passover # 5770, we put together our noggins to discuss some pertinent issues in Habsland.  Is Andrei Kostitsyn overrated?  Will he still be a Hab next year?  If you had to pick one, would it be AK46 or his little bro SK74? What’s wrong with the power play and how can Martin fix it?  Most importantly, will Pat manage to avoid eating bread for an entire 8 days this year?

 

 Habs Radio Episode 22 [37:50m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Episode 20 – Tony Montana to NHL: Say Hello To My Little Team!

Joo wanna win in this league? Joo gotta have PIZAZZ - lika dat guy Markov. Joo gotta have GUTS – lika dat guy Moore – he’ss a good guy. Most important, Joo gotta have de yeyo, like dat guy…never mind. Our best podcast yet – seriously. We examine why the Habs are playing so well right now, what it means for the playoffs, and how we stack up to the powerhouses in the East. Damn this season is getting fun all of a sudden.

 

 Habs Radio Episode 20 [40:44m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

The Death of Depth, the Glue That Sticks, and Malcolm Gladwell

We have a great podcast for you…but unfortunately, Eric is still asleep in Vegas somewhere. Naw, just kidding. He is back home in Montreal, safe and sound. But he is still asleep, actually. So while we wait for Eric to wake up and post the podcast we recorded last week, here’s an actual cogent thought about why the Habs are winning lately, something I don’t see anyone else talking about.

I’ve been thinking about Malcolm Gladwell lately and his book, The Tipping Point.

I am a sweet, doe-eyed hockey fanatic

The book explores the idea that sometimes small changes / phenomena – like how a single person with the flu can start an epidemic, or how hush puppies became huge only after the right fashionable kids in New York started wearing them – can quickly result in big changes or trends.  Applying it to hockey teams, a tipping point could be reached when some minor adjustments result in a big winning streak.

Since the Habs returned from the Olympic break,they’ve won 4 straight, and 5 of 6. They should have won all 6. At the same time, the play of the Habs’ third and fourth liners has been off the charts.

Coincidence?……Is it possible that the Habs have hit their very own Tipping Point as a result of the minor changes in the play of these “minor” players?

I admit, there are a lot of other reasons why the Habs have won 4 straight and 5 of 6 since coming back: The rest definitely helped, especially for the older guys. The Habs are healthier. The Gomez-Gionta-Pouliot line has played very well, and the goaltending has held up.

But all of that is just the price of admission. In order to just have the chance of winning, every team needs to be healthy, to have a good first line and get decent goaltending. But to win consistently, the Habs, and most teams, need everyone on the team to play well all the time.

Before we get to the Tipping Point of the Habs As The Theory That Explains All, look at the other teams in the East: Holes in almost every lineup (save Washington, Pittsburgh, and maybe, maybe, New Jersey). Buffalo has excellent goaltending and a few great front line players, but not much else. Boston, Tampa, the Rangers, Florida, all suffer from the same thing: Lack of steady players once you get past the excellent front liners of Bergeron, Chara, Stamkos, St Louis, Gaborik, Henrik, Vokoun etc. Ottawa and Philly have more good skaters, but for they don’t have standout goaltending. None of these teams have every player performing great. Because not all of their players are great. They don’t have enough depth (I’m simplifying a little bit with certain teams – injuries play a factor with Boston, team chemistry for Philly, for example – but you get the idea).

So why are the Habs winning lately? I believe it’s because their depth scoring has been INCREDIBLE. Metro has 2 points in 2 games (including a career-high 15th goal. I repeat, Glen Metropolit might score 20 goals this year). Brother Sergei had a goal and an assist last night – and he has been the best Habs forward in the last 4 games, save Gomez and Pleks. Down the list we have Travis Moen with 2pts in 2 games.  Mathieu Darche: 2pts in 2 games. Dominic Moore: 3 pts in 4 games.

Glen Metropolit: Hockey Super-Hero?

That’s 5 skaters who have scored 9 points in the last 2 games.That’s an average of almost 2 points per game from the depth players. And that’s before we talk about the specialized skills, steady defense and special teams coverage they have been providing (Brother Sergei was on the ice for the final 3-on-3 scrum last night and has become a very steady penalty killer. Moore wins a lot of faceoffs, most of Metro’s goals come on the power play, etc).

Add all of that to the price of admission – the fact that the Habs best players, Gomez, Markov, Plekanec and (last night) brother Andrei – are performing to their skill level, and now you have a team that wins consistently.

Sometimes, it’s the depth players that are the glue that stick the team together (ex-Habs like Robert Lang and Frankie Bouillon are doing that for their teams). Sometimes it’s the depth players who can serve as the tipping point for the team, that extra catalyst or motivation that causes everyone else to step up their game.

In the past, I’ve expressed my doubts about the depth of this team, especially on defense. But that was before Moore came on board, Sergei started getting actual minutes and Darche won a spot on the team. Now it’s only been a week, and the real test is if they can keep it up. If they do,maybe the Habs have hit a tipping point for their season and will win with consistency.

If they falter, my bet is that this will be just another random hot streak.

Two Games and You’re Down. Coach Officially Out of Ideas!

Brother Sergei had a good Olympics. His skills and physical attributes are clear and evident. He’s had his up-and-downs for the year, but seemed to have come around. So after two games of so-so post-Olympic performance on the second line, what does Coach do?

He plans to drop Sergei down to the fourth line for the game against LA and he will replace him with……Tom Pyatt!

REALLY?!!!?

Now I like Tom Pyatt as much as the next guy, and he deserves to stay with the big boys based on the current lineup, but does Coach really think a guy like Pyatt is a true second-liner, better than what Brother Sergei could be? Is Coach really so bereft of ideas that he can’t find another way to motivate a talented young forward to play better – one who was playing well for the big club right before the Olympics?

GROAN…..and here we have yet another insufferable “lesson” about the value of “hard work”. Pyatt brings his hard hat and doesn’t complain, and apparently, Sergei…not so much…

But here’s how I see this latest line shift: If a coach doesn’t have faith in me to turn things around, why would I have any faith in myself?

Is it any wonder the young forwards have lost all confidence in themselves this season?

Episode 8 – Gionta Down, Markov Down, Gill Down, O’byrne Down, D’Agostini Down, Laraque Down, Spacek Hurting, Hamrlik Hurting … HAVE NO FEAR – PRICEZILLA IS HERE!!

In addition to all the weekly goodies, we discuss Jacques Martin’s handling of the young and incredibly important forwards on the team, as well as the French media’s obsession with Guillaume Latendresse.

 

 Episode 8 Part 1 [14:59m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

 

 Standard Podcast [14:59m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download